Friday, August 18, 2006

a trip of a lifetime

I must make amends or not having posted in a great long while. Three things have and will prevent me from doing so for the foreseeable future:
I must finish writing certain sections of my master's thesis. In particular, I need to expand on earlier sections and go back through several months of research to reinforce a section on an algorithm I developed for altering synthetic speech timing.
The main harddisk on m computer suffered a catastrophic failure yesterday. By design I kept my files on the auxiliary HDD, so it was not a mortal blow to my ability to satisfy the previously mentioned goal. However, since it contained the boot loader and the system files, it could not start my computer without it. Thus I needed to buy a new HDD (with the same amount of memory, now half the price), install it in my computer, install Windows on it with all the tedious stops-and-starts, re-reconfigure my internet connection, and download a copies of the core programs lost before I could get back to work. Once again I conssider myself very fortunate in using only freely-available and gratis software, making this an hour-long process rather than all-day affair. Here's a list of all said vital software: Firefox, VLC Player, CDBurnerXP, GIMP, BitComet and OpenOffice. So one problem, resolved.
It's my birthday today. To celebrate my birthday, I have not acquired any special ceremony and I have longer since been unable to keep the traditional rites of cake, candle and song due to my nomad condition. There is one thing I make it a point to do every year for myself: I try to visit somewhere I have never been before. When I was younger, I tried to DO something I have never done before, a new experience be it physical or psychopharmalogical. With the wisdom of time, it has come to be more important me to go new places, rather than trying to change myself. Last year, I went to the Efteling for my birthday. This is the largest amusement park in the Netherlands and quite a way to resolve a quarter-life crisis. This year, I am going to Paris for the weekend for the first time. I plan to seek out the Mona Lisa, climb the Tour Eiffel and seek philosophy at the Cafe des Phares. If you are there, you can reach me at +31-0614814368. If you are not, I say to you, bon voyage.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

of man and monkey

The macaque (genus Macaca) is the second most widespread primate genus on earth, with twenty-two species recognized. These are the monkeys that most people think of, like the Barbary Ape and the Rhesus Monkey. Their habitats range across the Eastern Hemisphere from Gibraltar to Japan and many find a home in the laboratories of the Western world. The Rhesus macaque, for instance, was the first cloned and first transgenic primate. As recent as 2004, new species were being discovered in the macaque genus. The most famous macaque is Natasha, who lives in a zoo in Tel Aviv. After a stomach flu that almost killed her, she began to walk solely on her hind legs and never on all four limbs, a behavior never before observed in monkeys. An NPR commentator mused that she was both a symbol of the strange power of evolution and a political statement urging a revival of the stalled Middle East peace talks.

Their is a more pejorative sense of the word macaca or macaque, which is in the tradition of referring to dark-skinned people as monkeys and apes, or subhuman and not sapient. It was in this sense that Senator George Allen of Virginia used the word macaca to repeatedly refer to an Indian-American staffer on his opponent Jim Webb's campaign at a rally last Friday. Since macaca has been the word for monkey since Latin times, it is considered in many cultures as a slur against North Africans. Allen singled out the staffer during his speech in Breaks, Virginia, near the Kentucky border.

On Monday evening, Allen issued a non-apologetic apology:
"I would never want to demean him as an individual. I do apologize if he's offended by that. That was no way the point."
Asked what exactly the point was, Allen replied that he did not know what the word meant. He tried desperately to backfill that this nickname came from his staff and referred to the Webb staffer's haircut, which he claimed was a Mohawk. Although of Indian descent, the staffer, S.R. Sidrath was born and raised in Fairfax County, Virginia, unlike Senator Allen, who grew up in California. Note that all photographic evidence suggests that Sidarth, has his hair coiffed in a style that even the most ignorant person would NOT refer to as a mohawk, much less not know how to pronounce the word mohawk.A mohawk(or a 'mohican', as last of the, in British English) refers to a style of haircut which is thought to have been worn by members of the Mohawk tribe of Native American, consisting of shaving the hair from the sides and top leaving only a central stripe of hair down the middle of the scalp.The Mohawks or as they call themselves the Kanienkehaka (meaning "People of the Place of the Crystals") are thought to have received their name either through the mistranslation of their real name by Hessian mercenaries fighting with British troops or from a combination of the slurs of rival tribes the Naragansett and the Unami, who called them man-eating monsters. This style was only used among the Mohawk people when they were going into battle, as the hair was considered a connection to the creator. Keeping a small strip of hair thus was a method of retaining their a small bit of their spirituality while not taking all of it with them. They lived in the area between Vermont and the St. Lawrence river in Canada.

In my hometown (Millis, Massachusetts), the Mohawk is the high school mascot. Unlike most people outside of the punk scene and the Airborne Rangers, I saw people with their hair carved into Mohawks (to show school sprit) quite regularly through high school. There is no record, however, of the Mohawk nation living in the Millis area. It was instead home to some of the nomadic people of the Naragansett nation before they were driven off the land by British colonists (with the help of Mohawks) in King Phillip's War, including a number of my direct ancestors.

After insulting Sidrath's humanity with his dog-whistle appeal, Allen then tried his best grouchy old xenophobe schtick, telling Sidarth welcome "to the real world". Unsurprisingly, at the same rally there were no other people of color among the 100 or so Republican supporters.

Republican officials tried to lend cover by saying that people here don't think its racist:
"I didn't have a clue what it meant, and I doubt Allen did, either."
Allen appears to not know why he does alot of things until his staff can think of something suitably unctious spin, like calling the prominently displayed Confederate flag in his cabin, just part of a collection and the Confederate flag pin on his lapel in his high school yearbook photo a 'statement about his rebellious nature'.

Dog-whistle politics is a type of political campaigning which is "only heard" by a specific intended audience, like a dog whistle, which are built in such a way that humans cannot hear them due to their high frequency, but dogs can. The term is thought to have been introduced to the United Kingdom by Lynton Crosby, where it played a role in the 2005 general election; Michael Howard was often accused of practising "dog-whistle politics" on contentious subjects like immigration, with a campaign slogan that asked "Are you thinking what we're thinking?". In the US, they are euphemisized as 'wedge issues', but almost always it involves some sort of veiled racist slur, some element of Coulterkampf. Allen is aiming for those voters, which may help in in ol' Virginny, but not for the rest of our multiethnic nation.

UPDATE:
This is too good not to add. Apparently Senator Allen, that faux good ol' boy, knows exactly what 'macaque' means across the French speaking world. As TNR's Ryan Lizza notes:
Not only is macaque apparently a French slur used to describe North Africans, Allen would have good reason to know it is. His mother is French Tunisian (yeah, that's in North Africa), and Allen speaks French.

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Saturday, August 12, 2006

your terrorization antidote

Amidst all the triumphalist claims that we should be very, very afraid and 'see, it's about time you give up those silly civil liberties' from the Right following the London liquid bomb plot, it is important to keep a sense of proportion and above all, show some fucking spine. They may be terrorists, but only you can choose to feel terrorized.

Considering how inept this crew of jihadist wannabes was, al-Qaeda will never be as strong as it once was, nor will it ever be the truly existential threat that Communism was. Nevertheless, the apocolyptic precepts of radical Islam, things like the thought that its ok to kill Muslim victims because they'll go to Heaven anyway or that the Hidden Imam will return to defeat the infidels, give the policy of containment a much lower chance of success this time around.

Iran's president has been making ominous proclaimations about August 22, when it plans to give its final answer on the issue of its nuclear weapons program. A uncontainable Iran, its back up against the wall, is the true existential threat, certainly for Israel. The apotheosis of the martyr within radical Islamist thought means that even the lives of Palestinians caught in the crossfire are forfeit, as they will soon be enjoying their 72 virgins anyway. Even the projected Israeli nuclear counterstrike (yes, they have the bomb...oh, you didn't know?) fails to deter those under the heavy cloak of religious fanaticism.

But al-Qaeda has received its entire shopping list as a result of ineptitude of the Administration: bogged down in Iraq; pushed away from our allies; giving up our very soul for the illusion of security. But they are not hte Nazis or the Soviets, massive industrial societies with armies like our own. The Republicans have been politicizing this even before anyone else in the country knew about it, gloating about how it just might save their asses in November. Members of the Democratic Party can no longer just whine about this odious opportunism, they need desperately to pull some rhetorical ju-jitsu as to how waterboarding and illegal wiretaps did not foil this plot and are not needed for effective counterterrorism. British investigators, in all known cases, have obtained and complied with court-issued warrants for all surveillance done.

There will be more plots, probably at least one per year for the rest of our lives. There will come a time when tactics and techonology have advanced so that we will wish it was something like explosive Lucozade. We should take more comfort from history, as John Rogers points out:
Maybe it's just, I cast my eyes back on the last century ...

FDR: Oh, I'm sorry, was wiping out our entire Pacific fleet supposed to intimidate us? We have nothing to fear but fear itself, and right now we're coming to kick your ass with brand new destroyers riveted by waitresses. How's that going to feel?

CHURCHILL: Yeah, you keep bombing us. We'll be in the pub, flipping you off. I'm slapping Rolls-Royce engines into untested flying coffins to knock you out of the skies, and then I'm sending angry Welshmen to burn your country from the Rhine to the Polish border.

US. NOW: BE AFRAID!! Oh God, the Brown Bad people could strike any moment! They could strike ... NOW!! AHHHH. Okay, how about .. NOW!! AAGAGAHAHAHHAG! Quick, do whatever we tell you, and believe whatever we tell you, or YOU WILL BE KILLED BY BROWN PEOPLE!! PUT DOWN THAT SIPPY CUP!!

... and I'm just a little tired of being on the wrong side of that historical arc.
Laughter is not only powerful medicine, it is the antidote to fear. If your dosage level is not up to prescription strength, check out this cartoon (excerpted below):

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Friday, August 11, 2006

the other geopolitical quaqmire

From a trenchant article in the Toronto Star on Baluchistan, on the insurgency we are ignoring in order to waste more personnel and funds proving the President is a bigger man than his daddy:
Baluchistan is also home to poverty, radical Islam, Madrassa schools, drug trafficking and 231,000 Afghan refugees, all of which supplies the Taliban. What's more, the smuggling routes, both for drugs and Islamist guerrillas, run from Pakistan through Baluchistan and neighbouring Iran to Iraq. There couldn't be a better expression of the area's effective autonomy than the attendance, not long ago, of six Baluchistan politicians at the funeral of a Taliban commander.
What began as a peacekeeping mission for Canadian and US troops is rapidly devolving into a desperate bid for containment amidst the collusion of a supposed ally and the impotence of the Karzai government. Long have we realized that this is where al-Qaeda, our chief putative enemy in the struggle against violent extremism, has been coiled like a snake under a rock. But yet, Iraq has inexplicably become the centerpiece of US counterterrorism efforts as the jihadists hiding in the Hindu Kush are given little attention. That, I would argue, has emboldened the terrorists more than any Senate primary.

The problem with trying to drive the reemergent Taliban out of southern Afghanistan has multiple causes. First, there is no border with Pakistan to speak of: the area is a rugged desolate region far from Islamabad known as Baluchistan, and its people known as Baluchis. The British, in their typical colonialist cartographic zeal, drew the border (called the Durand Line) between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1893.

Fifty-five years later in 1948, when Pakistan was granted independence by the British, the Baluchis too desired an independent nation. Like the Kurds, who are caught between the three nations of Iraq, Turkey and Iran, the Baluchis considered themselves an ethnically distinct people caught between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. And also like the Kurds, they have been subject to a history of rebellion-crushing by their central government, the Pakistanis. During the mujahadin era of the 1980's, Baluchistan served as the jump-off point for Taliban forces battling the Soviets for control.

When the Durand line 'lapsed' in 1993, Pakistan moved Pashtun tribesmen into the ill-defined border region to form a barrier between Baluchistan and Afghanistan. However, instead of a barrier, the Pashtuns have been a conduit between the two lands for both Taliban recruits and their chief source of income, heroin. Pakistani President Musharraf is more concerned with supressing Baluchi separatism than trying to clear the Taliban from this area and the Baluchi separatists have little incentive to help the army. There is even whispers of the sinister ISI, the Pakistani secret police, aiding the heroin traffickers. And NATO troops have their backs up against the problem, trying to defend Kandahar and Helmand provinces in Afghanistan against the spreading resurgence of the Taliban. As long as Pakistan is unwilling to control a vast swath of its country, there remains little hope for its neighbor.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006

in-flight terror

A plot to destroy airplanes in flight through the use of liquid explosives was foiled in today in the United Kingdom. Concerns about terrorist alarmism, while justified by past terror alerts used for political purposes in the US, don't seem to apply. This was a real plot with the potential to cause devastation greater than the 9/11 attacks.

Speculation: this is the group we know as al-Qaeda, the terror network of Usama bin Laden. It has been five years since 9/11. Motives include jealousy or solidarity with Hezbollah as the leaders of jihad. There were ominous warnings and boasts of disrupting UK travel in the latest terror tape. This could well be a way of switching the focus back to them.

Explosives were disguised as beverages and electronic devices. According to news reports, aircraft from United Airlines, Continental Airlines, and American Airlines departing from Heathrow and Gatwick to New York City, Washington, D.C., and California were among those planned to be blown up. As many as twenty planes were involved and at least 21 suspects arrested, mostly Britains of Pakistani heritage. Two of the arrests were made in the Birmingham area, where firearms officers were not involved, and at least one arrest was made in High Wycombe. Houses in and around Walton Drive in High Wycombe, where one house was raided, have been evacuated. The BBC has reported that the key people involved in the plot are British born.DHS believes that as many as 50 people may be involved.

The UK Telegraph explains how such an explosive could be made:
Dr Clifford Jones, reader in engineering, University of Aberdeen, said a colourless liquid fuel component of an explosive, such as gasoline or kerosene, could be disguised as mineral water and an oxidant such as ammonium nitrate could be passed off as sugar.
UPDATE:
Despite Bush's 'stark reminder' that the US is 'at war with Islamic fascists', there is a greater lesson here in the absolute bankruptcy of the Flypaper Theory. As you may remember, this is the theory that can be summed up in the pithy phrase: "fightin' them over there so we don't have to do it here". The entire foreign policy adventure in Iraq is irrevelant to the real dangers faced by Western countries, despite all attempts at making them one and the same.

These were native Brits who were planning to kill thousands of their fellow citizens. Putting 150,000 troops in Mesopotamia will not stop this. In stopping this plot, bombs and bullets took a back seat to a combination of good intelligence, detective work and months of surveillance. Of course, we know now that top US government officials were aware of this plot days before and have already used it to play partisan politics, with the Dark Lord Cheney grumbling ominously about how this proves their point about needing to 'stay the course'. In fact, there is no need to subvert civil liberties, to pervert the law, in order to conduct effective counter-terrorism, as the British have shown us.

Make no mistake: there are evil men planning to commit murder on a massive scale, but this is no justification for the ill-advised strategies of the Bush Administration.

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Sunday, August 06, 2006

Joemeltdown

The 2006 Democratic senatorial primary will be much studied by political scientists in the future, because it has shown how an incumbent with a 46% lead over his unknown opponent could squander every advantage given by incumbency.

Surrogates are supporters of candidates who speak on their behalf, promoting their candidacy through reputation economics. The hope is that the positive advocacy of well-known figures will osmotically bless the candidate with good feelings, votes to follow.

Ned Lamont had a scheduled campaign stop at Ted's Cheeseburgers. Unfortunately he found covert Lieberman operatives waiting for the chance to smear. A large man, around 50 years old or so, then started screaming at Ned, "Are you an Al Sharpton Democrat, or a Bill Clinton Democrat?" Lamont and his press secretary attempted to interrupt while the owners of the restaurant were horrified and embarrassed. Then Ned Lamont went up to the few people in regular clothes and introduced himself, even as the Lieberman supporters kept screaming. He also tried to introduce himself to the Lieberman staffers. It grew so vitrolic Lamont was forced to leave. The harassment followed him outside.
Who was this mystery heckler? Reports quickly surfaced that this man was named Richard Goodstein. Who is Goodstein? As Julian Sanchez notes over at Reason's Hit & Run blog:
Goodstein seems to make his living off just a couple major clients: the printer company Lexmark and Pennsylvania-based Air Products and Chemicals, which among other things is a major supplier to the semiconductor industry. Air Products' former chairman, Howard Wagner, now sits on the board of Lieberman's second largest donor, Connecticut-based United Technologies (though boards are such a musical-chairs affair that this probably doesn't mean much in itself). More to the point, Joe Lieberman has been one of the most vocal supporters in the Senate of government subsidies to and partnerships with the semiconductor industry, which (through its trade association) gave the Senator an award for his efforts on their behalf back in 2001. The company has also been expanding its nanotechnology division, another hobbyhorse of Lieberman's. The top press release on the front page of Air Products' site right now is an announcement of a profitable licensing deal with the University of Connecticut for a technology that will help in the development of next-generation video displays. So it certainly makes sense that Goodstein's main client would have an interest in keeping Lieberman, whose pet issue happens to be their industry, in office.
As for the next step after the primary, Salon offers this quote about the Fox News Democrat:
"My guess," Kenneth Dautrich, a professor of political science at the University of Connecticut says, "is that once this primary's over you'll see him back on Fox real quickly because there's a weak Republican candidate who's running, independent voters are not averse to Fox, and the Democrats are going to be going with Lamont. The nature of the voters in the general election would suggest that he will do well by going back to Fox."
Why is Lieberman refusing to even discuss this oh-so-principled stand for the Iraq War? Here's Andrew Sullivan's theory:
My guess is that he's still lobbying hard to replace Rumsfeld later this year and, by all accounts, probably will.
One final point from Matt Tabbibi in Rolling Stone on cheap rhetorical tricks:
Brooks's column of a few weeks ago on the subject of Lieberman/Lamont, titled "The Liberal Inquisition," was a masterpiece of yuppie paranoia. In an editorial line that would be repeated by other writers all across the country, Brooks blasted the "netroots" supporters of Lamont for being leftist extremists driven by "moral manias" and "mob psychology" to liquidate the "scarred old warhorse" Lieberman, whom he calls "transparently the most kind-hearted and well-intentioned of men." This is the archetypal suburban-conservative nightmare -- anonymous hordes of leftist boat-rockers viciously assaulting the champion of the decent people, who is just a really nice guy given to tending his lawn and minding his own business.

But the most objectionable thing about the Brooks column was its crude parroting of a suspiciously similar DLC editorial published about a month before (See Road Rage, from the August 10th, 2006, issue of Rolling Stone) entitled "The Return of Liberal Fundamentalism." Both columns described Lamont's Internet supporters as "fundamentalist" liberals bent on a "purge" of poor nice old Joe Lieberman, who represents heterodoxy, centrism and bipartisanship. Brooks used the word "purge" twice; the author of the DLC column, Ed Kilgore, used it eight times.
Let's be clear about what we're dealing with here. These people are professional communicators. They don't repeatedly use words like "purge" and "fundamentalist" -- terms obviously associated with communism and Islamic terrorism -- by accident. They know exactly what they're doing. It's an authoritarian tactic and it should piss you off.

"So let me get this straight," I said. "We have thirty corporate-funded spokesmen telling hundreds of thousands of actual voters that they're narrow dogmatists?"
And they say the bloggers are angry...

UPDATE:
A great outsider perspective from the UK Guardian:
Lieberman's colleagues duly rounded on him. But his real crime was to give explicit voice to their spinelessness. In truth, only a handful had expressed anything but token opposition to the war and even fewer had set out a clear alternative for fear of being branded unpatriotic. They were mad because Lieberman blew their cover. What this race has really exposed is not a rift between him and the Democratic establishment, which has now closed ranks to back him, but between the establishment and both its base and the nation at large.

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Saturday, August 05, 2006

Amsterdam Pride 2006




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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

the prophecies of Kafka

I've never been very afraid of my country, but I have always been extremely wary of my government, just like the bumper sticker says. But I have real cause for concern after reading this article from TAP. It seems some of our most precious rights afforded under the Constitution, large swathes of the Bill of Rights, are left in the hands of Congress, widely recognized as the least trustworthy of institutions.

Following 9/11, President Bush set up military commissions at Guantánamo to try suspected terrorists with war crimes, dismissing any help from Congress or military lawyers. The Supreme Court, in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld, ruled that this military trial system is illegal. The Court ruled that they violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice which defines court-martial procedures. They also ruled that the Common Article 3 of the Geneva Convention still applies to non-state actors like al-Qaeda. The president could either follow the law or ask congress to change it.

Well Congress is thinking of doing just that in an incredibly broad new piece of legislation submitted by the president. Under the proposal, defendants would lack the right to confront accusers, to exclude hearsay accusations, or bar evidence obtained through torture. There would be no more guarantee of a speedy or public trial or the right to choose counsel, who in turn would not get the same access to evidence that prosecutors would have. It would even allow the SecDef to add crimes at will to the new court's jurisdiction.

From the NYT:
John D. Hutson, the Navy's top uniformed lawyer from 1997 to 2000, said the rules would evidently allow the government to tell a prisoner: "We know you're guilty. We can't tell you why, but there's a guy, we can't tell you who, who told us something. We can't tell you what, but you're guilty."
These are precisely the restrictions that Hamdan said the law prohibited. It makes the Geneva Conventions unenforceable, allowing the president to pay lip service to international law while his lawyers claim waterboarding is not torture. And as it stands, this horrific unperson status could be extended at will to anybody, including American citizens for not just being in a terrorist group and engaging into violent acts, but aiding 'groups engaged in anti-US hostilities'. Former Justic Department lawyer and testicle-crushing apologist John Yoo has said that administration officials basically "took DoD regulations and turned them into a statute for Congress to pass."

Here we have gone way beyond bending the rules to comply with Hamdan. This bill makes the whole world into a battlefield and mere association with suspects the basis for a military trial. Individuals thousands of miles from actual combat could be locked away indefinitely without charges and detained even when found innocent in this kangaroo court. And this eleastic definition of 'enemy combatant' in the context of a never-ending war has the clear potential to redefine treason so that people barely connected to international terrorism can have their rights vanish at the whim of Bush and his sinister cadre. Already we see this in the fear-mongering of self-serving Rovian attacks on media sources 'aiding the enemy' by reporting on US military actions.

So suppose our friend is an American citizen, living in some Western European country like Portugal. He, for the sake of this example it makes more sense to have him be a he, is an aspiring journalist and has made some contacts with people around the world as sources. However, he is an independent producer with no corporate protection.

One day, he receives an email from a mysterious unknown friend of a friend of a friend who claims he is a member of a militant Islamic organization. Perhaps our American friend tosses this aside as a crank, perhaps he engages in a dialogue, perhaps he denounces his philosophy a million times. It is irrelevant since the truth of the matter cannot be divined from within once the system is activated. Once you are there, you are presumed guilty until proven innocent. A CIA section in Western Europe is alerted to this communication through their ECHELON system, and empowered by this new Kafka Bill, proceeds to do the following:
Our American friend comes home one day to find several burly men in his apartment. Perhaps they taser or otherwise physically incapacitate him, perhaps with the cooperation of a local counterterrorist force. He is bound, gagged and sedated and taken to Lisbon airport. None of this is beyond belief for a legitimate violent extremist as we all now know, but when the definition of enemy combatant has been made elastic enough to encompass a member of the press, then all of the anti-media rhetoric made recently takes a creepy dog-whistle meaning.

He is then hustled onto Gulfstream aircraft like N44982 in the middle of the night and sent to a black site, in oh say, Uzbekistan. This country, by the way, is considered the most repressive of Central Asian autocracies where civil liberties would be a concept of great amusement for the authorities there. According to former CIA case officer Bob Baer,
"If you want a serious interrogation, you send a prisoner to Jordan. If you want them to be tortured, you send them to Syria. If you want someone to disappear - never to see them again - you send them to Egypt."
The aircraft is owned by a brass plaque company like Premier Executive Transport Services (based in my home county!) and uses an inversion of the tactic used by the CIA in the 1970's to bring exiled South American dictators back to the countries they bilked, thus justice could be 'rendered' by these countries. Now it is used to evade justice.

And if you think erroneous rendition is exaggerated, consider Khalid El-Masri, who was mistaken for a terrorist named Khalid Al-Masri. El-Masri, a German citizen, was pulled from a bus on the Serbia-Macedonia border and held for three weeks. He was drugged and beaten before being flown to Afghanistan on a Boeing Business Jet operated by Aero Contractors. El-Masri was released after five months. Or Laid Saidi, an Algerian detained and tortured along with El-Masri, who was apparently apprehended because of a taped telephone conversation in which the word tirat, meaning "tires" in Arabic, was mistaken for the word tairat, meaning "airplanes."

What does it profit a country to win a war but lose its soul?

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Tuesday, August 01, 2006

but no cigar

Fidel Castro, the permanent paterfamilias of Cuba, is 80 years old and in the hospital with intestinal distress. The military strongman has, for the first time ever, handed the reins of power over to another. Of course, he kept to the pseudo-monarchic traditions we have come to expect from North Korea, lending him to his slightly less elderly brother Raul(age 75). This has given much thought both in Washington and Havana as to Cuba after Castro, or the Castros, as the case may be. Whatever successor government, I hope the US punditocracy will be severely chastened this fucking time before 'our soldiers will be greeted with sugarcane parades' and 'cigars will pay for the entire reconstruction costs' drips out of their vodka-lubricated mouths. Not much is known about Raul, other than his general stay-the-course philosophy of governence and the contrast in charisma with his brother.
The US undoubtably will be pushed to 'do something' whether it means more meaningless threats or hosing down someone suitably pro-American in cash. This 'do something' is always a cure looking for a disease, and will be propounded at length by the president's brother, Florida governor Jeb Bush and his supporters in the Miami Cuban exile community. All would-be Chalabis are thinking about what they are going to do with grandpa's plantation it seems. But because we refuse any dialogue with Cuba, that egg is never going to be uncracked. I think rapprochment and dialogue with Cuba have been needed for decades. One Wal-Mart or even IKEA would be a far more formidable capitalist propaganda weapon than years of pirate radio transmissions.Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela, will see this as a regional challenge, pouring massive support into the Cuban economy. Expect to see concerns about the security of facilities in Gitmo, especially from twitchy Congressional hawks. Likely you will see a cold war between Venezuela and the US with attendant saber-rattling and cause for Hugo to deploy his musing suggestion to stop the spigot on Citgo. Meaning 20% of US oil is effectively unavailable, adding another dollar or two to its domestic price at best. Democracy will come at the behest of the Cuban people, and not by anyone in Miami, Caracas, or even the Castro family.

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